Avoiding the Holmesian Fallacy in Our Search for Truth

Sherlock Holmes, the fictional detective, solved difficult cases by applying the following maxim: “When you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth” (Arthur Conan Doyle, The Sign of the Four, Chapter VI: “Sherlock Holmes Gives a Demonstration,” italics in original).

This may be a successful formula for writing a detective story, but it’s a disastrous approach for learning. It’s been labeled the “Holmesian Fallacy,” and the following questions illustrate its weakness:

  1. How do you know that you have considered every possible explanation?
  2. How do you know that you haven’t already rejected a true explanation?

(See Stephen Law, “Thinking Tools: The Sherlock Holmes Fallacy,” in Think 6(17–18), Spring 2008, pp. 219–221.)

The prophet Mormon delivered a sermon in which he taught believers that they should prioritize receiving truth over rejecting error:

I beseech of you, brethren, that ye should search diligently in the light of Christ that ye may know good from evil; and if ye will lay hold upon every good thing, and condemn it not, ye certainly will be a child of Christ.

Moroni 7:19

Why focus on truth? First, as a matter of pure efficiency. As highlighted by the Holmesian fallacy, you can’t possibly refute every false claim. There aren’t enough hours in the day. As Elder Lawrence E. Corbridge explained:

There are unlimited claims and opinions leveled against the truth. Each time you track down an answer to any one antagonistic claim and look up, there is another one staring you in the face. I am not saying you should put your head in the sand, but I am saying you can spend a lifetime desperately tracking down the answer to every claim leveled against the Church and never come to a knowledge of the most important truths.

Stand Forever,” Brigham Young University Devotional Address, 22 January 2019

The other reason has to do with our spiritual state. When we spend excessive time focused on negative content, it degrades us emotionally and spiritually. Elder Corbridge once had an assignment which required him to read large quantities of material antagonistic to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. It was an important assignment, but reading large quantities of negative material always left him feeling gloomy. He found a scripture in modern revelation which explained this feeling of gloom:

That which doth not edify is not of God, and is darkness.

That which is of God is light; and he that receiveth light, and continueth in God, receiveth more light; and that light groweth brighter and brighter until the perfect day.

Doctrine and Covenants 50:23-24

Of course we need to recognize and reject false claims, but we do that in order to clear the way for the reception of light. If our focus is on the darkness, even if our goal is to drive it away, we may never find the light.

About the same time that Joseph Smith received that revelation, he received a revelation correcting some false beliefs of a new church member named Leman Copley. The Lord didn’t dwell excessively on Leman’s misconceptions; He focused on the true doctrines that Leman needed to understand. Notice the emphasis on light and truth in each of the following examples:

  • “Whoso forbiddeth to marry is not ordained of God,” is followed by two and a half verses about the importance of marriage. (See Doctrine and Covenants 49:15-17.)
  • “Whoso [biddeth] to abstain from meats…is not ordained of God,” is followed by three verses about caring for God’s creations on the earth. (See Doctrine and Covenants 49:18-21.)
  • “The Son of Man cometh not in the form of a woman, neither of a man traveling on the earth,” is followed by three verses describing the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. (See Doctrine and Covenants 49:22-25.)

Today, I will prioritize receiving truth over refuting falsehoods. I will strive to discern between light and darkness in order to focus on the light. In my conversations with others, I will emphasize true principles rather than dwell on errors.

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